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Recent price movement
All benchmark prices rose over the past month.
Values for the December NY futures rose slightly, rising from levels near 65 cents/lb early last month to those above the 70 cent mark in the latest trading. Current levels for NY futures are slightly higher those experienced late last summer.
The A Index also increased, rising from levels near 75 cents/lb a month ago to those above 77 cents/lb recently. Current values are also a little higher than those reached last summer.
The China Cotton （CC） Index rose six cents/lb in international terms over the past month, climbing from values equivalent to 87 cents/lb to those equal to 93 cents/lb. In domestic terms, the CC Index increased from 12,600 RMB/ton to 13,600 RMB/ton.
Prices for the Indian Shankar-6 variety continued to surge higher, rising from 73 to 83 cents/lb in international terms. In local terms, values increased from 38,300 to 44,000 INR/candy.
Movement in Pakistani spot prices was less dramatic. In international terms, spot prices rose from 65 to 68 cents/lb. In domestic terms, prices rose from 5,550 to 5,800 PKR/maund.
Supply, demand, & trade
This month’s USDA report featured reductions to world production figures for 2015/16 （-0.2 million bales, from 98.1 to 97.9 million） and 2016/17 （-0.6 million bales, from 103.2 to 102.5 million） and increases to world mill-use estimates for 2015/16 （+1.4 million bales, from 108.8 to 110.2 million） and 2016/17 （+1.0 million bales, from 110.6 to 111.6 million）. The combination of lower production and increased consumption implies lower ending stocks, and the forecast for world ending stocks in 2016/17 dropped by 3.4 million bales （from 94.7 to 91.3 million）. With a projected stocks-to-use ratio of 81.8%, global supply relative to demand remains nearly double the historic average, but this month’s reduction to estimated ending stocks suggests that the process of working through the excess is proceeding more rapidly than previously believed.
At the country-level, the largest revisions to 2015/16 production estimates were concentrated in the southern hemisphere, with the figure for Brazil falling 300,000 bales （from 6.5 to 6.2 million） and the figure for Argentina dropping 100,000 bales（from 1.0 to 0.9 million）. For 2016/17, the largest updates included the additions for the U.S. （+1.0 million bales, from 14.8 to 15.8 million） and Australia （+200,000 bales, from 2.6 to 2.8 million） as well as reductions for Pakistan （-1.0 million bales, from 9.0 to 8.0 million）, India （-500,000 bales, from 28.0 to 27.5 million）, Greece（-230,000, from 1.2 to 1.0 million）, and Uzbekistan （-100,000 bales, from 3.8 to 3.7 million）.
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CottonMarketFundamentals&PriceOutlook
Recent price movementMost benchmark cotton prices moved higher over the。