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Chinese local gov- ernments are currently busy with conferences and public hearings to establish local policy on allowing dandu couples （only one member of which has no siblings or half-siblings） to have two children, a long-awaited measure unveiled following the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC （Communist Party of China） Central Committee which concluded in mid-November 2013.
The announcement, a landmark in the history of China’s controversial family planning policy, marks the first loosening since 2009, when the government decided to allow couples both of whom were only children to have a second baby. Experts have said the new measures will allow roughly 15-20 million people to have a second child.
Although the central government has warned local decision makers of the potential pressure that could be brought about by a baby boom following the loosening of restrictions, experts believe the policy will not have a large impact on China’s total population, with many suggesting that the policy should be extended to all couples.
“Based on our calculations, it would have been fine for the country to loosen the onechild limit five or six years ago. Delaying until now is cautious enough,” Xiao Zhenyu, former statistics director at the National Family Planning Commission, the government body tasked with managing the One Child Policy, told NewsChina.
Population Projections
China has called for population control since the end of the 1970s, at which time the government was anxious to boost the country’s economy, which had been badly damaged by the Cultural Revolution （1966-1976）. Thanks to China’s second population explosion following the three-year famine（1959-1961）, the country was home to over 800 million people at the end of the 1970s, over 30 percent of whom, however, were trapped in abject poverty. Despite placing 15th in global GDP rankings at the time, China’s GDP per capita was among the world’s lowest, only two-thirds that of neighboring India.
“The central government was determined to change the country’s fate, so it promoted the slogan ‘Develop the economy while decreasing population [growth],’” said Zhang Mincai, then a member of the national family planning leader group, in an interview with NewsChina in 2010.
The slogan soon found its way into legislation, as the Chinese government wrote the phrase “the State promotes family planning” into the third version of its constitution in March 1978. In June that year, the State Council set up the national family planning leader group, defining its aim as“to reduce China’s natural growth rate of population from 12.1 per thousand in 1977 to below 10 per thousand by 1981.”
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