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With a concentrated slew of diplomatic visits in the past couple of years, China has launched its dual-track New Silk Road initiative. The program aims to achieve regional integration along the ancient overland Silk Road trade belt linking Asia and Europe alongside a Maritime Silk Road Belt linking China, Southeast and South Asia. Dubbed One Belt, One Road, the dual initiative is set to be China’s leading foreign policy priority in the coming years.
But in laying out the blueprints for its One Road, One Belt initiative, it is clear that the Middle East, a key link on the ancient Silk Road, is absent from the plan, a seemingly counter-intuitive omission. In the past few years, China has relied on the oil-producing Arab states for much of its oil and gas. Saudi Arabia, for example, is China’s biggest source of crude oil. In 2013, oil imports from Saudi Arabia accounted for 20 percent of China’s total. In the meantime, Qatar has become China’s principal supplier of liquid natural gas. In 2013, some 30 percent of the crude oil consumed in China originated in the Middle East, which supplied more than 50 percent of China’s total imported crude that year.
However, in recent years, China seems to have become wary of venturing further into this region when expanding its overseas investment. In 2013, China total global FDI amounted to US$90 billion, more than half of which was bankrolled by State-owned energy companies. In terms of geographical allocation of FDI, however, Chinese investment in the Middle East lags far behind that in other oil-rich regions. While China has increased its investment in the energy industry in Africa and South America, in the Middle East it has focused mainly on promoting trade.
A major reason for this caution is the volatile political and security situation in many Gulf states, which in the last few years has made Chinese investors more circumspect. China suffered huge losses in Libya as a result of the Arab Spring movement. The rise of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq also poses a direct threat to recent Chinese investment in Iraq’s oil industry. Even in Saudi Arabia, where the political situation is relatively stable, China’s success is limited. For example, the China Railway Construction Corporation （CRCC） lost 4.15 billion yuan （US$670m） on a light rail project in Mecca that ended up completing way over budget due to frequent bureaucratic issues. With these lessons in hand, China’s leadership appears to be reluctant to venture into the Middle East when promoting its One Belt, One Road project.
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OneBelt,OneRoadcouldbeChinasbestsoftpowerproject
The high profile “Belt and Road” initiative（a reference to the land-base。