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“Five years ago, Nokia dominated the market, Steve Jobs was still with us, and we did not yet have WeChat.”
Chinese netizens recently circulated this post on social media to express surprise at the difference five years can make in our lives. Now, China’s ruling party has unveiled an ambitious vision for the country’s next five years – which, as any Chinese netizen will tell you, is a long time in such a rapidly changing society.
On November 3, 2015, the Communist Party of China （CPC） described the coming five years as a “set point” to achieve its goal of building a “moderately prosperous society”by 2020. “Moderately prosperous,” for China’s macroeconomic planners, means doubling official 2010 figures for both GDP and individual personal income. The document in which this pledge was made, “Proposal on Formulating the Thirteenth Five-year Plan（2016-2020） on National Economic and Social Development,” is a guideline for the drafting of the 13th Five-year Plan which will be approved by the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislative body, in March 2016. The proposal was officially adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, held in Beijing in October 2015.
China’s growth story can no longer be taken for granted. It is not realistic for the na- tional economy to rely on fragile and volatile overseas markets. Further exploiting domestic demand will take time. The environmental cost of development and the rapid depletion of resources are both beginning to bite. Government and corporate debt is piling up. Chinese President Xi Jinping has acknowledged that all these factors will contribute to uncertainty in the next five years.
According to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, in an article published in Party mouthpiece People’s Daily on November 6, “mediumhigh speed” growth, rooted in “medium-high quality” will be key in achieving the govern- ment’s economic goals. The government is hesitant to set a specific compulsory figure that will constitute “medium-high” speed growth. Economists have made projections on a GDP growth spectrum ranging from 5 to 8 percent, and have recommended staying flexible rather than fixating on an exact figure. There is consensus among economists, policymakers and the public that the real pace in the end will depend on the progress of economic reform. In this context, five cornerstones have been highlighted in this so-called“double medium-high” model： innovation, coordination, green growth, opening-up and inclusiveness.
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